Both sea level rises and the escalation in extreme weather events caused by climate change could result in mass displacement of people from their homes and migration towards areas with a more stable climate. A recent report on the impact of rising sea levels on real estate prices by the Union of Concerned Scientists finds that across the Continental US, about 311,000 homes are at risk of being inundated with seawater by 2045, or about $135B of assessed property. The strength and frequency of hurricanes have increased in the past 30 years with an uptick in Category 4 and 5 storms. In 2017, 10 hurricanes formed over 10 weeks, matching a record that was last set in 1893. The total cost of weather and climate disasters in 2017 set a new record in the U.S., topping $300 billion.
The level of mass migration and displacement has already dramatically increased and we do not expect that to resolve in the near future. Since 2010, the number of displaced persons has almost doubled from 33.92 million to 67.75 million as of 2016.
This movement of people can amplify existing conflicts and create new sources of unrest. Before the civil war in Syria, for example, the country had faced its worse drought in 900 years. Farmers whose crops failed moved en masse to the cities, heightening economic pressures and resource shortages.
Escalating Uncertainties: Up close
The future will be determined by those who are willing to reinvest, adapt and turn future threats into opportunities.