Macro Minutes

Final Countdown

BoC/Fed/BoE/ECB are all on tap over the coming week. How high rates will go, whether there will be a quick u-turn to rate cuts in...

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategist
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

It's Complicated

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Amy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Where's Terminal?

All year market pricing for terminal rates in most countries has been a moving target and one directional – higher. Last week the Fed...

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Let's Get Restrictive

Most central banks are at a maturing stage of the hiking cycle, putting terminal policy rates firmly in focus at upcoming meetings...

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

A Gilt Edged Crisis

A made in UK fiscal crisis has led to sharp rises in gilt yields, with the BoE's buyer of last resort interventions disappointing...

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn(Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Daniel Rico (Desk Strategy), Latin America FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Fault Lines

Fiscal policy has cracked the UK bond market, opened fissures in the Pound, causing ruptures in other bond markets and by extension...

• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), UK Economist
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Full Throttle

Central banks are going full throttle to fight inflation by delivering outsized rate increases over multiple meetings. Their job...

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Gordon Scott (Research), Australia Economics & Fixed Income
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Adam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Bears are Back in Town

Many G10 central banks have moved policy rates to a neutral policy setting and are set to send them into restrictive territory with...

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Yo-Yo Yields

The bond market overreacted to inflation fears in June and yields overshot on the topside. July was a complete reversal (and some) as...

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Daria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Need For Speed

Central banks are full throttle on rate increases in a throwback to the early 1980's inflation fighting era. The ultimate end game of...

• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Startegy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Jason Daw (Desk strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Dog Days of Summer

The weather isn't the only thing heating up; North American central banks are expected to deliver large rate increases in July and...

• Jason Daw (Desk strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Startegy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Adam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Too Soon To Focus On Growth Risks?

We continue in an ebb and flow between market focus on inflation and growth risks, with the latter taking more prominence in recent...

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategy
• Daniel Rico (Desk Strategy), Latin America FX Strategist
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S Equity Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Aggressive Tightening And Its Impacts

After markets started to shift attention towards growth risks, hawkish central banks and still elevated inflation have re-focused...

• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Amy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Robert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Abrupt Reversals – Can They Be Sustained?

Markets have sharply reserved course. Is this the start of a new trend, a consolidation phase, or just a pause before past trends...

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy
• Adam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading
• George Davis (Desk Strategy), Chief Technical Strategist, FICC

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Shifting Sands in Macro & Markets

Inflation dominated the narrative for the past few months but growth risks are gaining importance and there are subtle shifts...

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Amy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Central Banks Strike Back

There are clear parallels between now and the early 1980's (rates vol, inflation uncertainty, aggressive central bank tightening)...

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief AU Economist
• Daria Parkhomenko (Trading), FX Strategist
• Adam Cole (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Curve Chaos: Bond, Equity, FX Implications

Bond markets have gone wild - the sell-off has intensified and the new dimension of the move higher in rates has been dramatic curve...

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy
• Amy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Central Banks – The Road Ahead

Global central banks continue to shift more hawkish, but can lofty market pricing for tightening be realized? What are the risks and...

• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief AU Economist
• Michael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Up, Up and Away

A hawkish Fed added fuel to the bond market sell off, which is having repercussions across global asset markets. In this episode, RBC...

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Adam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist
• Robert Thomson (Desk Strategy), Macro Rates Strategist
• Jason Mandel (Desk Strategy), Head of Leveraged Finance Desk Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Russia-Ukraine Risk Premium

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is having a pervasive impact on global economies and financial markets. In this episode, RBC experts...

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates Strategy
• Helima Croft (Research), Head of Commodity Strategy & MENA Research
• Peter Schaffrik (Research), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US Economist
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts