Macro Minutes

Continental drift

In this episode Elsa, Peter and Blake discuss the weakening of the US, the outlook for the Fed and UST markets as well as the cross implications of both developments on the ECB and European rates.

• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Pivot Time

US policy uncertainty is sky high. Global investors own a lot of US assets, mostly unhedged currency exposure, and the natural implication is that the collision of large exposures and elevated uncertainty could have a large impact on global capital flows, asset markets, and currency hedging activity.

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Limited Series I Special Edition Episode: Systematic Protection: How QIS Enables Responsive Defensive Overlap Strategies

Strategies promising to remove human emotion from investing were once niche. Now a growing number of institutions are finding them valuable. Where will QIS go next?

• Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA
• Solenn Le Floch (Desk Strategy), Managing Director, Global Markets Solutions
• Akilesh Eswaran (Desk Strategy), Global Head of QIS and EMEA Head of Equity Trading
• Samkit Tated (Desk Strategy), Director of QIS Structuring

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Go Your Own Way

Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered 25bps rate cuts at their latest meetings but with very differing messages. Whereas the RBA delivered a ‘very dovish’ cut the BoE was much more cautious and in this episode we unpack the reasons for that differing approach and what it means for each going forward.

• Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK Economist
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Minority Report

The Canadian federal election produced the third straight Liberal minority government. The pre-election campaign incorporated sizable new fiscal measures. In this episode we unpack what it means for the economy, Bank of Canada policy, issuance, and the rates market.

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

A Little Less Tarrified

Today we break down the trade war, the dollar, equities, rates, earnings season, and what it all means for markets—plus a quick dive into Treasury refunding.

• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos(Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

It's Politics, Stupid.

It is a unique time for economies and financial markets - political decisions are increasingly driving economic outcomes and asset markets rather than the other way around. Today's episode unpacks what it means for US & Canada and the implications for equity markets.

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Chaos Theory

Today is 11-April-2025 and my name is Peter Schaffrik. We have labelled this edition ‘Chaos Theory’ and I trust most listeners do not need and explanation as to what inspired us. Market swings have been very large on the back of the back and forth in the tariffs culminating in a 90d pause being announced this week. Helping us to bring some order into the chaos, I am joined by Blake Gwinn, RBC’s head of US rates strategy and Elsa Lignos, Head of FX strategy.

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Can Europe’s Bank Equities and AT1s comeback be sustained?

A twin resurgence is reshaping European financial markets. Bank equities and AT1 bonds are both surging—can the momentum last?

• Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA
• Anke Reingen (Desk Strategy), Global Co-Head of Financials Research
• Marc Sanchez Roger (Desk Strategy), Head of European Financials Credit Sector

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* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Trump’s Policies: Reshaping the Defense Landscape

Explore how Trump's policies are reshaping global defense. Experts from RBC Capital Markets analyze the economic and strategic shifts in UK, European, and US defense spending.

• Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales, EMEA
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Chief European Macro Strategist
• Ken Herbert (Research), Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst

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* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Butterfly Effect

The butterfly effect is where a change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. Indeed, US trade policies are having significant intended and unintended consequences for various countries that is impacting fiscal policy and politics and potentially and monetary policy and the bond market.

• Jason Daw(Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Su-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Softening Regulation Supports a Positive Dividend Outlook for U.K. Banks

The signals are mixed, but the outlook for the U.K economy is uncertain at best, while geopolitical risks add further potential volatility. So why is the U.K. banking sector looking forward to another strong year?

• Janet Wilkinson (Desk Strategy), Head of Global Markets Flow Sales EMEA
• Kofi Oteng (Desk Strategy), Head of Flow Rate Sales EMEA
• Benjamin Toms (Desk Strategy), Director European Banks Equity Research

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* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Return of the Living Spread

The degree to which lingering tariff uncertainty impacts both market and general economic outcomes remains unclear. Economies are evolving regardless, with Europe and Canada seeing some improvement, while US exceptionalism is perhaps fading. Issuance and regulatory developments have brought swap spreads - the difference between swap rates and bond yields of the same term - back into focus. Persistent bond weakening in North America is now in question.

• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Aftermath

This weekend and the start of the trading week were heavily impacted by President Trump announcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. They were ultimately postponed for Mexico and Canada, but he has the EU in his sights as well. This edition we discuss central banks in the context of tariffs, but also what the non-tariff fundamentals are suggesting for policy going forward. The Fed paused its cutting cycle just last week, while the BoC and ECB cut 25bp and the BoE looks poised to do so later this week.

• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist
• Robert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The Art of the Deal

The biggest known unknown for economies and financial markets is what will happen with tariffs – are they just being threatened as a bargaining chip for transactional purposes, if they come to fruition what will their breadth, size, and duration be, and will trading partners retaliate. Unfortunately for investors, the matrix of possibilities is endless, and each has a low probability chance. In this edition our asset class experts provide answers to the difficult questions.

• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy
• Lori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Bark or Bite?

Will Trump’s bite match his bark on tariffs? If it does, the economic damage could be severe but central bank responses are not clear cut in the short term. While Trump policy is the primary risk factor, there are many other question marks – Is the Fed finished the easing cycle? What happens with Canada politics? Will the ongoing rout in global bond markets continue? Is the USD destined to remain strong? – that are important for asset markets in 2025.

• Blake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates Strategy
• Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates Strategy
• Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & Economics
• Elsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy

* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts