Stocks at a Crossroads
By Lori Calvasina
Published May 16, 2022 | 9 min listen
This week in the podcast, our latest thoughts on economic expectations, sentiment, and valuations. The big things you need to know: First, the S&P 500 is still trading as though it’s experiencing a growth scare, a framework that has been pointing to downside in the S&P 500 to ~3,850. Current trends in economic forecasts continue to support the idea that this is the right way to think about how far stocks should fall. Second, institutional investor sentiment has made significant progress catching down to retail investor sentiment, with overall US equity futures positioning among asset managers now below 2020 & Great Financial Crisis lows, and getting close to 2011 and 2015/2016 lows – something that makes the case for a bottoming in stocks relatively soon if recession fears can be kept at bay. Third, while valuations aren’t yet a reason to buy US equities on their own, they are no longer a problem for the market as a whole.
Lori Calvasina
Managing Director & Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets
Lori Calvasina joined RBC Capital Markets as Head of U.S. Equity Strategy in 2017 as a Managing Director. Having spent nearly two decades as an equity strategist at major investment banks, Lori is an expert on the US stock market, and regularly represents RBC in the financial media on Bloomberg and CNBC. Prior to joining RBC, Lori was a senior equity strategist at Credit Suisse from 2010 to 2017, covering Small/Mid Cap Strategy from 2010-2014 and both Small/Mid Cap and US Equity Strategy from 2015-2017. She spent the first ten years of her career at Citi in a variety of roles including lead Small/Mid Cap Strategist from 2007-2010. In both 2008 and 2009 Lori was ranked #2 in the Small Companies category in the Institutional Investor All America Research team poll. Lori is a graduate of the University of Virginia and its selective Government & Foreign Affairs’ Honors Program. In 2019, she was named to Crains New York’s list of Notable Women in Finance.
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