Signs of Stress Emerging, Not Sufficient To Call An End To The Rebound Yet

By Lori Calvasina
Published August 23, 2022 | 6 min listen

Today in the podcast, we reflect on some of the most interesting things we saw last week in terms of insightful charts and questions plus the high-frequency sentiment, economic, and political indicators we track. Three big things you need to know: First, our chart of the week highlights how the S&P 500 has been able to establish major bottoms in past periods of extreme stress before EPS forecasts were fully cut. Second, our question of the week addresses investor concerns that valuations no longer look appealing for the stock market following the big summer rally. Our work indicates that S&P 500 valuations are above average but below recent major peaks, while Small Caps still look attractively valued, telling us valuation pressures are not sufficient to call an end to the summer rebound just yet. Third, what jumps out most in our sentiment work is that Nasdaq futures are starting to look overbought in the weekly CFTC data for asset managers, a negative data point for the market, but that positioning in S&P 500, R2000, and Dow contracts are still in the early days of their recoveries, a positive signal.

Disclosures and Disclaimers

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Lori Calvasina

Lori Calvasina
Managing Director & Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets

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