Stuck In Neutral For Now
By Lori Calvasina
Published May 30, 2024 | 5 min listen
The big things you need to know: First, Small Caps are retesting their relative low vs. Large Caps once again, as Fed rate cut optimism has faded once again. We remain neutral Small vs. Large for now. Second, investor sentiment has almost returned to the highs in place to start the year (as well as the summer of 2023) on the AAII survey, reinforcing our neutral stance on the broader US equity market for now. Third, our S&P 500 valuation model continues to suggest that the broader US equity market is fairly valued, with some modest downside risk if current inflation, interest rate, and Fed assumptions end up being too rosy. For a material move higher in the market by year-end to be justified on the math, we think investors will need to start focusing on the outlook for 2025, where visibility still seems a bit limited.
Lori Calvasina
Managing Director & Global Head of Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets
Lori Calvasina joined RBC Capital Markets as Head of U.S. Equity Strategy in 2017 as a Managing Director. Having spent nearly two decades as an equity strategist at major investment banks, Lori is an expert on the US stock market, and regularly represents RBC in the financial media on Bloomberg and CNBC. Prior to joining RBC, Lori was a senior equity strategist at Credit Suisse from 2010 to 2017, covering Small/Mid Cap Strategy from 2010-2014 and both Small/Mid Cap and US Equity Strategy from 2015-2017. She spent the first ten years of her career at Citi in a variety of roles including lead Small/Mid Cap Strategist from 2007-2010. In both 2008 and 2009 Lori was ranked #2 in the Small Companies category in the Institutional Investor All America Research team poll. Lori is a graduate of the University of Virginia and its selective Government & Foreign Affairs’ Honors Program. In 2019, she was named to Crains New York’s list of Notable Women in Finance.
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