The George Davis Report: April 2019 Edition

Published April 16, 2019 | 3 min watch

A monthly video series on the trajectory of the Canadian dollar

In this edition of the George Davis report, George discusses RBC’s forecast revisions for interest rates and the impact on our Canadian dollar forecast.

What you need to know

1

Global central banks have become much more cautious about the growth outlook as trade uncertainties persist.

2

This has caused us to abandon our previous call for further interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada and Fed in 2019 and 2020.

3

Limited inflation pressures in Canada suggest that there will be no urgency for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates.

4

While we now expect Bank of Canada and Fed policy to be on hold indefinitely, the market is actually pricing in rate cuts as we head into 2020.

5

We see the risk of some modest CAD weakness as the year progresses, amidst an environment of broader USD strength.

Hedging Strategies

USD/CAD

Buyers

1.3100 – 1.3200

Sellers

1.3500 – 1.3600

This video is part of our monthly George Davis Report series, with ad hoc reports brought to you as current.

George Davis
Chief Technical Strategist, FX Trading, Strategy & Sales, RBC Capital Markets

With over 25 years of market experience, George Davis is responsible for RBC’s Canadian dollar forecasts as well as intermarket technical analysis research that covers the FX, fixed income and commodity asset classes. Prior to this, he was a Vice President on RBC’s spot Canadian dollar and forward foreign exchange desks in Toronto and a foreign exchange Dealer in Montreal.

His technical research has been recognized via fourteen international awards in the FX, fixed income, commodity and emerging markets asset classes. George was also awarded Technical Analyst of the Year four times (in 2010, 2013, 2017 and 2018) by the Technical Analyst magazine and in 2016 by the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, in addition to being inducted into the CSTA Hall of Fame in 2017.

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