The George Davis Report: November 2019 Edition

Published November 12, 2019 | 4 min watch

A monthly video series on the trajectory of the Canadian dollar

In this edition of the George Davis report, George discusses the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey results and what ultimately led to a change in policy bias.

What you need to know

1

Stable autumn business sentiment caused USD/CAD to test the bottom end of our 1.3000-1.3500 trading range for hedging strategies

2

Despite this development, the Bank of Canada surprised the market by shifting its policy bias from neutral to dovish

3

An “insurance” rate cut was contemplated as continued global uncertainty is expected to test the resiliency of the Canadian economy

4

Consumption and housing should be watched closely to determine if they can offset downside growth risks from exports and business investment

5

The Bank’s dovish stance will make it difficult for USD/CAD to sustain moves below the 1.3000 threshold as trade dynamics remain in focus

Hedging Strategies:

USD/CAD

Buyers

1.3000 – 1.3100

Sellers

1.3400 – 1.3500

This video is part of our monthly George Davis Report series, with ad hoc reports brought to you as current.

George Davis
Chief Technical Strategist, FX Trading, Strategy & Sales, RBC Capital Markets

With over 25 years of market experience, George Davis is responsible for RBC’s Canadian dollar forecasts as well as intermarket technical analysis research that covers the FX, fixed income and commodity asset classes. Prior to this, he was a Vice President on RBC’s spot Canadian dollar and forward foreign exchange desks in Toronto and a foreign exchange Dealer in Montreal.

His technical research has been recognized via seventeen international awards in the FX, fixed income, commodity and emerging markets asset classes. George was also awarded Technical Analyst of the Year five times (in 2010, 2013, 2017, 2018 and 2019) by the Technical Analyst magazine and in 2016 by the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, in addition to being inducted into the CSTA Hall of Fame in 2017.

CADForeign ExchangeGeorge DavisOutlookUSD