The George Davis Report: June 2022 Edition
By
George Davis, CMT
Published June 17, 2022
|
9 min watch
A monthly video series on the trajectory of the Canadian dollar
Don’t miss this month’s edition of the George Davis Report, where George discusses inflation, Bank of Canada policy expectations and the impact on the Canadian dollar.
Sustained above-target inflation has prompted a more aggressive policy response from the Bank of Canada.
Additional hawkish rhetoric from the BoC has increased the probability of a 75bp rate hike at the July meeting.
Moreover, market pricing has pushed terminal rate expectations 75-85bps above the BoC’s 2-3% estimate for the neutral rate.
Our forecasts imply that market pricing is too aggressive and risks being walked back should inflation peak in Q2 as we expect.
Such a scenario would likely lead to some degree of CAD weakness.
For the trading range:
USD/CAD
George Davis, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist, Fixed Income, Currencies & Commodities, RBC Capital Markets
With over 30 years of market experience, George Davis is responsible for RBC’s Canadian dollar forecasts as well as intermarket technical analysis research that covers the FX, fixed income and commodity asset classes. Prior to this, he was a Vice President on RBC’s spot Canadian dollar and forward foreign exchange desks in Toronto and a foreign exchange Dealer in Montreal.
His technical research has been recognized via twenty-two international awards in the FX, fixed income, commodity and emerging markets asset classes. George was also awarded Technical Analyst of the Year six times by the Technical Analyst magazine and once by the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, in addition to being inducted into the CSTA Hall of Fame in 2017. George has a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) from Concordia University, holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation and is a Managing Director of RBC Capital Markets.
BoCCADEconomyGeorge DavisHawkishInflationMarketMonetary Policy
