The George Davis Report: December 2022 Edition

By George Davis, CMT
Published December 16, 2022 | 9 min watch

A monthly video series on the trajectory of the Canadian dollar

Don’t miss this month’s edition of the George Davis Report, where George discusses RBC’s 2023 economic outlook.

What you need to know:

1

The sharp 4% increase in the Bank of Canada overnight rate since March does not bode well for growth next year.

2

RBC Economics expects a mild recession to hit in H1 2023 as the consumer and housing market weigh on growth.

3

Recent BoC communication has opened the door to a slowdown in rate hikes, subject to the evolution of incoming data.

4

RBC Economics is looking for the BoC to pause rate hikes at a terminal rate of 4.25% through 2023 as they keep rates in restrictive territory and assess the lagged impact of rate hikes.

5

The economic profile may present the scope for some CAD weakness in early 2023, followed by CAD gains as the year progresses.

For the trading range:

USD/CAD

Buyers

1.3300/1.3400

Sellers

1.3700/1.3800

George Davis, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist, Fixed Income, Currencies & Commodities, RBC Capital Markets

With over 30 years of market experience, George Davis is responsible for RBC’s Canadian dollar forecasts as well as intermarket technical analysis research that covers the FX, fixed income and commodity asset classes. Prior to this, he was a Vice President on RBC’s spot Canadian dollar and forward foreign exchange desks in Toronto and a foreign exchange Dealer in Montreal.

His technical research has been recognized via twenty-two international awards in the FX, fixed income, commodity and emerging markets asset classes. George was also awarded Technical Analyst of the Year six times by the Technical Analyst magazine and once by the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, in addition to being inducted into the CSTA Hall of Fame in 2017. George has a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) from Concordia University, holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation and is a Managing Director of RBC Capital Markets.

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