The George Davis Report: June 2023 Edition

By George Davis, CMT
Published June 19, 2023 | 6 min watch

A monthly video series on the trajectory of the Canadian dollar

Don’t miss this month’s edition of the George Davis Report, where George discusses the recent BoC rate hike and changes to RBC’s interest rate and FX forecasts.


What you need to know:


The BoC has been forced off the sidelines after pausing at the prior two interest rate meetings, with the recent hike pushing the overnight rate to a new 22-year high of 4.75%.


More persistent excess demand runs the risk of keeping inflation materially above the BoC’s 2% target, thereby forcing them to act.


The hawkish tilt suggests that a one-off rate hike will not do the job and indicates that additional hikes are on the horizon.


Even if rates reach the 5% threshold, risks will remain tilted to the topside until growth, job and inflation data confirm a broader slowdown.


We discuss our recently revised interest rate and USD/CAD forecasts in light of the more proactive action taken by the BoC.

For the trading range:






George Davis, CMT

George Davis, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist, Fixed Income, Currencies & Commodities, RBC Capital Markets

BoCCADEconomyGeorge DavisHawkishHikesInflationInterest RateMarketOvernight Rates