The George Davis Report: June 2023 Edition
By
George Davis, CMT
Published June 19, 2023
|
6 min watch
A monthly video series on the trajectory of the Canadian dollar
Don’t miss this month’s edition of the George Davis Report, where George discusses the recent BoC rate hike and changes to RBC’s interest rate and FX forecasts.
The BoC has been forced off the sidelines after pausing at the prior two interest rate meetings, with the recent hike pushing the overnight rate to a new 22-year high of 4.75%.
More persistent excess demand runs the risk of keeping inflation materially above the BoC’s 2% target, thereby forcing them to act.
The hawkish tilt suggests that a one-off rate hike will not do the job and indicates that additional hikes are on the horizon.
Even if rates reach the 5% threshold, risks will remain tilted to the topside until growth, job and inflation data confirm a broader slowdown.
We discuss our recently revised interest rate and USD/CAD forecasts in light of the more proactive action taken by the BoC.
For the trading range:
USD/CAD
George Davis, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist, Fixed Income, Currencies & Commodities, RBC Capital Markets
With over 30 years of market experience, George Davis is responsible for RBC’s Canadian dollar forecasts as well as intermarket technical analysis research that covers the FX, fixed income and commodity asset classes. Prior to this, he was a Vice President on RBC’s spot Canadian dollar and forward foreign exchange desks in Toronto and a foreign exchange Dealer in Montreal.
His technical research has been recognized via twenty-two international awards in the FX, fixed income, commodity and emerging markets asset classes. George was also awarded Technical Analyst of the Year six times by the Technical Analyst magazine and once by the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, in addition to being inducted into the CSTA Hall of Fame in 2017. George has a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) from Concordia University, holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation and is a Managing Director of RBC Capital Markets.
BoCCADEconomyGeorge DavisHawkishHikesInflationInterest RateMarketOvernight Rates
