How battery tech and chemistry are expected to evolve

At RBC’s Battery Value Chain Conference, Tom Narayan, Global Autos and Auto Parts Analyst, hosts a group of industry experts to discuss the evolution of battery technologies and chemistries.

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By Tom Narayan
Published June 27, 2024 | 3 min read

Key points

  • Battery innovators continue to address EV customer pain points such as charging speed.
  • To realize new advances, the industry needs investors with a belief in the opportunities of the energy transition.
  • Government policy moves and business ingenuity are enabling some battery firms to side-step dependence on Chinese products.
  • Despite a short-term sales slowdown, capacity across various chemistries will be required to meet the ultimate global demand.

Innovation continues despite sales slump

A near-term global slowdown in electric vehicle sales is causing pain. Innovators, however, are confident that that the ultimate embrace of EVs is inevitable, and that their long-term challenge will be keeping up with demand.

Meanwhile, battery innovators are currently focusing their efforts on advances to counter drivers’ range anxiety. A key technology and chemistry breakthrough would accelerate EV charge speeds to make them comparable with gas fill-ups, says Paul Lichty, CEO of Forge Nano. Elsewhere, projects are targeting risk: “We still see lots of safety concerns, founded or not,” Lichty adds. “We’re seeing a lot more investment in those two areas, and a little bit less on energy density and cycle life, which we’ve traditionally seen in the past.”

Joseph Bertin, President of Tokai COBEX Savoie, adds cost efficiencies to that list, alongside reducing the CO2 footprint of processes. “Design-to-cost is very well known in the automotive industry. The nice thing when you start from scratch is that you can design to cost and CO2 at the same time. CO2 doesn’t come as additional cost, but as a driving force to reduce cost,” says Bertin.

“The nice thing when you start from scratch is that you can design to cost and CO2 at the same time.”

Joseph Bertin, President, Tokai COBEX Savoie

Capital costs require decisive investors

Christer Bergquist, CFO and Deputy CEO at Altris AB, says cost is the fundamental element for success in the space. His company is building its first pilot factory to prove it can produce cathode at scale for its sodium ion cell product. He says sodium ion also has safety benefits over lithium ion.

“If you can compete on cost, the market demand is there,” he says. “And if you take cost and safety and you pull them together, you have a magic platform to build from.”

This kind of progress demands investors who believe in the opportunity of the transition, declares Nico Cuevas-Gomez, CEO at Urbix. The U.S. has seen a decline in manufacturing start-ups, he notes. “The new renaissance of the type of entrepreneur that has a manufacturing mindset needs to be matched with the investors that understand the capital requirements,” he says. “Investors need to realize this is the moment for them to place their bets.”

“Investors need to realize this is the moment for them to place their bets.”

Nico Cuevas-Gomez, CEO, Urbix

Western players swerve Chinese imports and competition

The dominance of Chinese manufacturers is high in the minds of U.S. and European players, but the panelists are confident that western innovators can hold their own.

Uncertainty persists over the potential removal of tariff waivers for Chinese graphite imports. However, many OEMs are already diversifying their supply by seeking out U.S. sources.

On a wider level, proposed battery passport regulations will support a more level playing field with China, by ensuring transparency of EVs’ CO2 footprints. “That will be a game-changer that will clearly change the competition, if it’s done properly,” Bertin says.

Urbix has been able to remove Chinese equipment from its entire process chain, says Cuevas-Gomez: “We figured out a mechanism of not only removing the China risk, but also doing this in an environmentally conscious way.” He hopes more western companies will adopt this approach.

For Bergquist, the secret is to build up local capacity in partnership with other parts of the battery chain. Since sodium ion is a new chemistry, Altris can build in regulatory compliance upfront.

Lichty welcomes the reintroduction of long-term industrial policy in the U.S. and Europe. While the west struggles to meet price parity with China due to labor and environmental standards, he says, “we’re seeing a couple of really good tailwinds – both from the policy standpoint, and from the increase in innovative cost savings, environmentally-friendly technologies that are going to get to market here potentially faster than elsewhere.”

Multiple technologies required to meet demand

As energy storage evolves, Lichty has seen customers demand new types of battery. While lithium ion would dominate EV for some time, technologies such as solid-states would find the right markets, whether in EV or consumer electronics. “There’s enough room emerging where a lot of these chemistries are going to find homes in very segmented marketplaces and have the ability to be successful,” Lichty believes.

“There’s enough room emerging where a lot of these chemistries are going to find homes in very segmented marketplaces.”

Paul Lichty, CEO, Forge Nano

Cuevas-Gomez points to the projected demand for anode material: just one of the major Korean battery manufacturers is set consume 300,000 metric tons within five years. “We need sodium ion, we need synthetic, we need the solids and the silicones,” he says. “It’s a combined effort, even with the slowdown projections, if we want to meet the energy transition requirements.

“If we get cell batteries for climate change redress, not for our generation but for the next generations, we’re winning.”

Nico Cuevas-Gomez, CEO, Urbix

“The winners are everybody that enables that transition to happen,” he concludes. “If we get cell batteries for climate change redress, not for our generation but for the next generations, we’re winning.”

Our Expert

Tom Narayan
Tom Narayan
Global Autos and Auto Parts Analyst

 

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