The George Davis Report: January 2023 Edition
By
George Davis, CMT
Published January 13, 2023
|
6 min watch
A monthly video series on the trajectory of the Canadian dollar
Don’t miss this month’s edition of the George Davis Report, where George discusses upcoming event risks ahead of the Bank of Canada’s January meeting.
There are three key event risks that the market will have to face ahead of the January 25 Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
The first of those risks has already taken place in the form of the stronger than expected December employment report.
The Bank of Canada Q4 Business Outlook Survey will serve as the next event risk on the horizon and it will allow the BoC to gauge short and longer-term inflation expectations, wage expectations and capacity pressures.
The last key event will be the December CPI report, where the BoC will watch to see if core inflation measures are declining after remaining relatively elevated and unchanged in November.
RBC Economics is now looking for a 25bp rate hike at the January meeting, with the resulting overnight rate of 4.50% expected to serve as the terminal rate.
For the trading range:
USD/CAD
George Davis, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist, Fixed Income, Currencies & Commodities, RBC Capital Markets
With over 30 years of market experience, George Davis is responsible for RBC’s Canadian dollar forecasts as well as intermarket technical analysis research that covers the FX, fixed income and commodity asset classes. Prior to this, he was a Vice President on RBC’s spot Canadian dollar and forward foreign exchange desks in Toronto and a foreign exchange Dealer in Montreal.
His technical research has been recognized via twenty-two international awards in the FX, fixed income, commodity and emerging markets asset classes. George was also awarded Technical Analyst of the Year six times by the Technical Analyst magazine and once by the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts, in addition to being inducted into the CSTA Hall of Fame in 2017. George has a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) from Concordia University, holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation and is a Managing Director of RBC Capital Markets.
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