The George Davis Report: November 2023 Edition

A monthly video series on the trajectory of the Canadian dollar

By George Davis, CMT
Published November 20, 2023 | 8 min watch

Don’t miss this month’s edition of the George Davis Report, where George discusses the outcome of the October BoC interest rate decision and implications for CAD arising from an economic slowdown.

 

What you need to know:

1

The Bank of Canada chose to keep interest rates unchanged at their October meeting, banking on the lagged impact of rate hikes continuing to work their way through the economy.

2

Data since then continues to point to excess demand disappearing, while the job market makes incremental progress on loosening up.

3

While inflation remains above target, the softer September release has brought some relief to the “on hold” narrative. The weaker than expected October CPI report in the US will also help more broadly.

4

That being said, key data releases will have to continue to point to softening in order to keep the BoC on the sidelines.

5

A slowdown in the demand side of the Canadian economy and a pending slowdown in the US maintains bearish undertones for CAD.

For the trading range:

USD/CAD

Buyers

1.3400/1.3500

Sellers

1.3800/1.3900


Our Experts

George Davis, CMT
George Davis, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist, Fixed Income, Currencies & Commodities, RBC Capital Markets

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