From Recession to Recovery – A Bumpy Road Ahead for the Canadian Economy

By Craig Wright
Published October 13, 2020 | 7 min watch

RBC’s New Canadian Monthly Macroeconomic Series

This is the first edition of The Economic Pulse - a monthly series that will provide macroeconomic insights and analysis from RBC’s Chief Economist, Craig Wright and Deputy Economist, Dawn Desjardins.

In this edition, we focus on the Canadian economic outlook for Q4 and into 2021. A number of factors will likely result in a more modest growth rate compared to the strong bounce back we saw in Q3.


Key Takeaways:


Canada faces a number of economic headwinds including the COVID-19 second wave, sluggish global economic growth and less accommodative policy.


The Canadian consumer is the key to driving economic growth, but as the government rolls back household support, spending must be driven by job gains.


We continue to keep a close eye on the labour market - we expect the unemployment rate to hit 8.5% by year end down from the 13.7% peak during the recession. This bodes well for consumer spending.

For RBC’s latest in-depth economics research and analysis, please visit RBC Economics.

Craig Wright

Craig Wright
Senior Vice President & Chief Economist,