Don’t miss this month’s edition of the George Davis Report, where George discusses FX market overshoots, the Bank of Canada policy stance and our revised forecast profile for USD/CAD.
What you need to know:
Our research shows that some currencies have a tendency to overshoot in January as consensus trades for the year ahead are put on.
With USD/CAD registering a net decline in January 2023, it presents the scope for a corrective rally in February/March as the overshoot is corrected.
The Bank of Canada has shifted to a neutral policy stance after taking the overnight rate to 4.50% in January.
The hurdle for additional rate hikes is higher now, with an “accumulation of evidence” of stronger than forecast data required to nudge the BoC off of the sidelines.
We have revised our 2023 forecast profile for USD/CAD to include a lower peak that is dispersed out over a longer time horizon.
For the trading range:
USD/CAD
Buyers
1.3100/1.3200
Sellers
1.3500/1.3600