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OPEC+ navigates production pace amid Iran deal uncertainty
Published July 8, 2026
OPEC+ announced a 188 kb/d production increase on Sunday against a backdrop of continued uncertainty about the trajectory of Hormuz transits as well as the diplomatic path to converting the Memorandum of Understanding to a final deal by mid-August.
Iraqi officials have issued somewhat contradictory statements, with some calling for greater production autonomy, which was interpreted as a veiled threat to leave the producer group.
Hormuz transits remain 71% below pre-war levels, with Western and Japanese shippers hesitant to resume operations until a final agreement moves beyond the mid-August MoU target date.
The left vertical axis measures OPEC+ total crude supply in million barrels per day (mb/d), scaled from approximately 25 to 41 mb/d and represented by dark navy blue vertical bars; a footnote clarifies that this supply figure excludes Libya and Iran.
The right vertical axis measures monthly Brent crude oil prices in dollars per barrel ($/bbl), scaled from 0 to approximately $140/bbl and represented by a gold line.
From June 2017 through mid-2019, OPEC+ supply remained elevated in the 36–38 mb/d range while Brent prices fluctuated between roughly $55 and $85/bbl. A pronounced supply contraction is visible around June 2020, consistent with COVID-19-related production cuts, with supply declining to approximately 29–31 mb/d; Brent prices also fell sharply to approximately $40/bbl at that point before recovering.
Supply gradually increased through 2021 and into 2022 as production quotas were progressively eased. Brent prices surged to their highest level on the chart — approximately $120/bbl — around June 2022, before declining steadily through 2023–2025 into the $70–85/bbl range.
At the far right of the chart, in June 2026, OPEC+ supply registers the most pronounced single-period decline in the entire dataset, falling to approximately 26 mb/d — the lowest supply level recorded — while Brent prices simultaneously recovered to approximately $100/bbl, indicating that a significant production curtailment is supporting renewed price strength.
June survey results reveal optimism, not euphoria, heading into 2H26
Published July 7, 2026
Across the globe our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months and see attractive valuations in the industries they cover. Europe and Canada captured the most optimistic performance outlooks among our four coverage regions, but the US was not far behind.
Our Canadian and US analysts expressed a favorable view of their own respective domestic policy backdrops. On the US midterm elections, our US analysts had a slightly constructive tilt on performance in a Republican sweep scenario, a slightly negative tilt on performance in a Democratic sweep scenario, and a neutral view on performance in a split Congress scenario.
At the global sector level, performance outlooks were mostly positive and came in stronger than other sectors for Materials and Industrials, but only by a little.
Listen to the full episode — "June survey results reveal optimism, not euphoria, heading into 2H26"
Closing bell: We’ve been in an earnings vacuum, says RBC’s Calvasina
Published July 7, 2026
CNBC's Scott Wapner discusses recent market activity, the tech trade and more with Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
Watch the full segment — "We've been in an earnings vacuum, says RBC's Calvasina."
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