Special edition: Crunch time for the consumer

In this special edition, Lori leads a discussion on the state of the US consumer with three of RBC's senior US equity research analysts.

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By Lori Calvasina, Nik Modi, Mike Dahl and Steven Shemesh, RBC Capital Markets
Published | 1 min read

The big things you need to know:

  • The team tackles some of the top questions in consumer-related conversations today, including what their company and industry level interactions and data have been telling them about the current state of the consumer, whether the consumer has been retreating or simply shifting their spend, what's happening in different consumer cohorts, what they think the biggest challenges are for the consumer at the moment, and how their companies are managing around tariffs.
  • Overall, the team comes to the conclusion that while many of the issues impacting the consumer aren't new, in the aggregate the current set of pressures feels different and conditions appear to have taken a turn for the worse. Nik notes that the tone at a recent industry event was the most downbeat of all of the year's he's been attending and highlights what he believes the incremental pressures are this year. Mike highlights how his proprietary pricing data was particularly weak in February and how weakness in housing has broadened regionally. Steve points out that many issues have been used to explain consumer weakness earlier this year (i.e. weather), but that the slowing that's been underway has persisted even with some of those things now in the rearview mirror.
  • On policy, all three noted that their companies have provided very little in the way of guidance related to tariffs, which will likely lead to a tricky reporting season. The team explores whether the companies in their industry will be able to pass along tariff costs via pricing, collectively concluding that it may vary by industry and will be very difficult to do in certain verticals.

View audio transcript

Our expert

Lori Calvasina
Lori Calvasina
Managing Director & Global Head of Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets

Lori Calvasina joined RBC Capital Markets as Head of U.S. Equity Strategy in 2017 as a Managing Director. Having spent nearly two decades as an equity strategist at major investment banks, Lori is an expert on the US stock market, and regularly represents RBC in the financial media on Bloomberg and CNBC. Prior to joining RBC, Lori was a senior equity strategist at Credit Suisse from 2010 to 2017, covering Small/Mid Cap Strategy from 2010-2014 and both Small/Mid Cap and US Equity Strategy from 2015-2017. She spent the first ten years of her career at Citi in a variety of roles including lead Small/Mid Cap Strategist from 2007-2010. In both 2008 and 2009 Lori was ranked #2 in the Small Companies category in the Institutional Investor All America Research team poll. Lori is a graduate of the University of Virginia and its selective Government & Foreign Affairs’ Honors Program. In 2019, she was named to Crains New York’s list of Notable Women in Finance.

Nik Modi
Nik Modi
Consumer Staples Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Nik joined RBC Capital Markets in 2013 to provide coverage of tobacco, household products and beverages. He has more than 15 years of research experience, most recently at UBS, where he was a senior analyst specializing in tobacco and household personal care as well as the global coordinator for UBS' global consumer staples effort, which encompassed more than 200 companies across the world. Nik has been ranked No. 2 in Institutional Investors’ tobacco category for six consecutive years. He is a Managing Director of RBC Capital Markets.

Mike Dahl
Mike Dahl
Managing Director, Equity Research - Homebuilders & Building Products Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Mike Dahl joined RBC Capital Markets in May 2018 as a Managing Director and Senior Analyst in Equity Research responsible for coverage of the U.S. Homebuilders & Building Products sector, currently based in Boston. Mike has covered the sector for 18+ years, and was most recently awarded a Runner-Up ranking (#4) in the 2024 Institutional Investor All-America Research Poll. Mike was also Runner-Up (#5) in 2023, after being recognized as the #3 ranked analyst in his sector in 2020-2022, and Runner-Up (#4) in 2019. Prior to joining RBC, he led coverage of Homebuilders & Building Products at Barclays Capital as a Director in Equity Research, beginning in 2016. Before joining Barclays, Mike was a Director at Credit Suisse Securities, where he worked from 2008-2016, first as part of a top-ranked Homebuilders & Building Products research franchise before becoming the Senior Analyst in 2014. Mike began his career at Banc of America Securities in 2006, where he worked as an analyst on a top-ranked Homebuilders & Building Products research team. Mike graduated magna cum laude from Fordham University. 

Steven Shemesh
Steven Shemesh
U.S. Hardlines/Broadlines & Food Retail, Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Steve Shemesh is the U.S. Hardlines/Broadlines & Food Retail Analyst at RBC Capital Markets. He joined the firm in 2015 and previously served as a member of the U.S. Consumer Staples team (specifically covering Household & Personal Care, Beverages, Packaged Food & Tobacco). Steve holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University. 

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