The carbon removal market is beginning to mature
The voluntary carbon removal market has reached a critical juncture. While still dominated by early adopters, a fundamental shift is underway. Mainstream corporate buyers are now entering through traditional procurement channels. This represents a watershed moment that signals genuine market maturation.
“We're seeing a signal of real mainstream customers coming on board in the carbon removal ecosystem.”
Charlie Renzoni, Vice President of Carbon Markets, Deep Sky
Companies ranging from financial services and insurance firms to airlines, pharmaceutical services companies, and even sporting leagues are building carbon removal into their long-term decarbonization strategies. However, many of these buyers operate quietly, avoiding public announcements about their carbon removal purchases. Canadian corporations in particular have grown circumspect following proposed changes to Bill C-59, the anti-greenwashing legislation, which has complicated public climate communications. Yet this silence masks genuine momentum. Internally, sustainability leaders and business executives are convinced that carbon removal – paired with deep decarbonization in their own operations – is essential to achieving net-zero commitments.
Forward purchasing unlocks supply
Despite growing buyer interest, the market faces insufficient supply. The situation is even more pronounced in direct air capture, where the bottleneck is not technology but infrastructure. Over the next five years, supply of direct air capture will be inadequate to satisfy emerging demand, particularly as new buyer categories enter the market beyond technology companies and financial services firms.
Forward purchasing commitments offer a solution to supply constraints. When buyers commit to purchasing carbon credits years in advance, they provide project developers with the certainty needed to make substantial infrastructure investments. This dynamic has proven transformative for companies like CarbonRun, which closed a major pre-purchase agreement with Frontier, a buyer consortium focused on high-quality carbon removal.
“The demand signals enabled confidence in foundational infrastructure investment. More importantly, forward commitments empower project developers to negotiate with suppliers and regulators.”
Dr. Eddie Halfyard, Co-founder and CTO, CarbonRun
Forward purchasing agreements fund research and development, support equipment procurement, and enable operational scaling. They also provide the collateral that attracts debt financing, which accelerates project development. Without these demand signals, even the most promising technologies remain constrained by capital limitations.
Isometric, a carbon removal registry founded three years ago, ensures that every credit issued truly represents one ton of carbon dioxide removed and that services are paid for by the buyer, not the project developer. This structural change removes potential perverse incentives, lowering reputation risks for companies.
The path to 2030
Looking toward 2030, when most corporate interim climate targets come due, the market must evolve across multiple dimensions simultaneously. Financial services firms, insurance companies, energy companies, and industrial manufacturers across multiple geographies need to demonstrate commitment to carbon removal as part of their net-zero strategies, moving beyond reliance on a handful of hyper-scalers. International investment in climate tech innovation will be equally critical. Companies like Evok Innovations, a hard-tech venture fund focused on heavy industry, are already backing geotechnical negative emissions technologies capable of delivering large-scale, durable, low-cost carbon removal. Lastly, companies, policymakers, and investors must articulate why durable carbon removal, paired with deep decarbonization, is essential to achieving net-zero commitments – and why that mission justifies investment today.
