The private aviation sector is poised for significant structural growth, driven by two interconnected macroeconomic trends: rising global wealth disparity and a shift toward multipolar geopolitical competition. These dynamics are expected to concentrate wealth among elites while creating new demand vectors that extend beyond traditional commercial aviation into defence and intelligence applications.
Global wealth concentration is intensifying. In the United States, the top 1% of households now holds approximately 31% of national wealth, a concentration that has historically driven demand for ultra-premium private travel. Globally, ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) — those with assets exceeding $30 million — are projected to grow by approximately 40% in Asia and contribute proportionally to North American growth by 2030. This wealth expansion directly correlates with demand for large, long-range aircraft, as affluent executives require rapid global mobility to manage geographically dispersed operations and access underserved or strategically sensitive markets.
Private jet shipments remain below 2019 peak levels, with deliveries reaching approximately 764 aircraft in 2025 — still shy of the pre-pandemic record of 809 units. However, total flight hours have increased 18% since 2019, and operations among fleet operators have grown approximately 30%, signaling strong underlying demand that supply-side constraints have prevented from materializing in delivered units. This creates a substantial production upside opportunity as manufacturing capacity normalizes.
The aftermarket services growth engine
The installed business jet fleet has expanded at approximately 3% annually since 1996 and now exceeds 20,000 aircraft. Critically, fleet retirements have declined, meaning aircraft remain in service longer and require increased maintenance spending. Combined with the rise of fractional ownership and fleet operator models — where utilization rates far exceed traditional private ownership — aftermarket service revenues may grow faster than OEM production revenues over the next five years.
Defence customers, charter operators, and fractional services operate jets at substantially higher flight hours annually than UHNW individuals. A defence-oriented jet may log approximately 5,000 hours per year, compared to roughly 300 for private ownership. This utilization intensity drives recurring maintenance, parts replacement, and modification work, all commanding higher margins than original equipment sales.
"Rising geopolitical tensions and the drive for economic sovereignty present opportunities for private jet aviation, particularly in developing ISR platforms."
James McGarragle, CFA, CPA, Canadian Industrials Analyst, RBC Capital Markets
Defence spending creates new market opportunities
Geopolitical tensions are creating a new revenue category: business jet-derived defence platforms. NATO nations are expected to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, up from the prior 2% target. Canada alone is boosting defence spending from 1.4% of GDP to 5% by 2035, beginning with an additional CAD $9 billion in 2025 focused on Arctic capabilities and air sovereignty.
Business jets offer compelling advantages for defence missions: lower operating and maintenance costs compared to traditional military aircraft, ability to operate from austere airfields, smaller logistical footprints, and flexible multi-role configurations. Current applications include Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) platforms, command-and-control aircraft, and emerging interest from the U.S. Air Force in business jet-derived aerial refueling tankers as part of its Next Generation Air Refueling System program.
The convergence of wealth concentration, geopolitical fragmentation, and defence modernization creates structural tailwinds supporting production growth exceeding 3% annually through 2030 while catalyzing margin expansion through defence and services segments. Large-cabin aircraft and long-range platforms are expected to capture an estimated 68% of delivery value, providing durable demand for manufacturers capable of competing in the ultra-premium segment.
James McGarragle and Ken Herbert authored the report "Elevating Mobility in the Future of Private Travel – Private Aviation's Role in a Stratified and Shifting World," published on February 5, 2026. For more information on the full report, please contact your RBC representative.
