Episode 7

Election Night Coverage: How the oil industry and U.S.-China relationship could fare under a Biden or Trump presidency

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Key Points

  • Helima Croft and Dewardric McNeal, Longview Global senior policy analyst and a former China policy expert with the Department of Defense under Obama, join CNBC’s 2020 presidential election coverage on Wednesday, November 4.
  • They discuss the early election results and how it could impact the oil industry and the U.S.-China relationship.
  • If current election trends hold and we have a divided government, it will further former Vice President Biden’s need to “ hug the midline ” when it comes to energy policy.
  • If Biden does prevail, he may have to scale back plans to remove subsidies for oil and gas producers because of Congressional opposition. That said, a Biden White House could use executive actions, federal regulation, and try to push for other goals to be embedded within broader economic recovery legislation, to further its environmental strategy.
  • Biden should be able to move forward with plans to re-enter the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal and provide sanctions relief if Iran reverses its recent breaches of the agreement. Under a Biden presidency, we continue to anticipate Iran being able to return around 1 mb/d of exports back to the market by the second half of 2021.
  • Several of our Beyond the Ballot speakers expressed strong concerns about a period of prolonged political uncertainty following the November 3 election. While there remains the potential for heightened and drawn-out political uncertainty which could lead to more gold positive outcomes, at the moment, market calm is prevailing and gold prices remain subdued, as we have yet to reach such a perilous point.

Required Conflicts Disclosures

For more information about the series "Beyond the Ballot with Helima Croft" or the research report "Beyond the Ballot Quick Take: After Hours" published on November 4, 2020, please contact your RBC representative.

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